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5.4.2 Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results

Code

Vega-Lite Chart

{
  "$schema": "https://vega.github.io/schema/vega-lite/v5.json",
  "description": "Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results",
  "data": {
    "sequence": {
      "start": 0,
      "stop": 10000,
      "step": 1,
      "as": "index"
    }
  },
  "transform": [
    {
      "calculate": "50 * exp((0.03 - 0.05 * 0.05 / 2) * 1 + 0.05 * sqrt(1) * sampleNormal(0, 1))",
      "as": "final_price"
    }
  ],
  "width": 500,
  "height": 300,
  "layer": [
    {
      "mark": {
        "type": "bar",
        "tooltip": true
      },
      "encoding": {
        "x": {
          "field": "final_price",
          "type": "quantitative",
          "bin": {
            "maxbins": 50
          },
          "title": "Final Stock Price"
        },
        "y": {
          "aggregate": "count",
          "type": "quantitative",
          "title": "Frequency"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "mark": {
        "type": "rule",
        "color": "red"
      },
      "encoding": {
        "x": {
          "aggregate": "mean",
          "field": "final_price",
          "type": "quantitative"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "mark": {
        "type": "rule",
        "color": "green"
      },
      "transform": [
        {
          "quantile": "final_price",
          "probs": [
            0.05
          ],
          "as": [
            "prob",
            "value"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "encoding": {
        "x": {
          "field": "value",
          "type": "quantitative"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "mark": {
        "type": "text",
        "align": "left",
        "dx": 5,
        "dy": -5
      },
      "encoding": {
        "x": {
          "aggregate": "mean",
          "field": "final_price",
          "type": "quantitative"
        },
        "text": {
          "value": "Mean"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "mark": {
        "type": "text",
        "align": "left",
        "dx": 5,
        "dy": -5
      },
      "transform": [
        {
          "quantile": "final_price",
          "probs": [
            0.05
          ],
          "as": [
            "prob",
            "value"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "encoding": {
        "x": {
          "field": "value",
          "type": "quantitative"
        },
        "text": {
          "value": "5% VaR"
        }
      }
    }
  ]
}